Bullish prospects for the Brazilian real and Mexican peso – Credit Suisse

Economists at Credit Suisse reaffirm their USD/BRL and USD/MXN Q2 targets of 4.50 and 19.55 respectively and would look to fade USD strength to 4.80 and 20.24.

Still constructive on BRL and MXN 

“We remain bullish on BRL and MXN, in line with our Q2 targets of 4.50 in USD/BRL 19.55 in USD/MXN.” 

“We see risks of hawkish reassessment of monetary policy expectations as providing ongoing carry support for respective FX.” 

“Relatively benign levels of implied vols suggest MXN could be vulnerable in the event of sudden progress in electricity reform efforts. Our base case nevertheless remains that risks of a rapid change in the law’s prospects are limited at this point.”

“USD rallies to 4.80 in USD/BRL and to 20.24 in USD/MXN would in our view represent attractive entry points for fresh shorts.”