9 Jul 2014
RBA rate to be unchanged until late 2015 - NAB
FXStreet (Bali) - Alan Oster, Group Chief Economist at NAB, shares his insights on Australia, noting that as the economy stands, cash rate is expected to be unchanged until late 2015.
Key Quotes
"Domestic indicators continue to point to jobless growth and no certainty that declining mining investment will be replaced quickly. Retail looks softer and the property (price) market seems near a plateau. Extent of fiscal consolidation remains uncertain and the unsettled state of consumers, post the Budget, could be a slow negative burn on demand and ultimately business outcomes."
"Forward indicators from survey still weak. Australian forecasts unchanged: 3.3% in 2014/15, 3.0% in 2015/16. But jobless growth still sees unemployment rate peak at 6¼% by end-2014. Cash rate unchanged until late 2015. On rates our judgement is that the risk of a further easing has risen but so far hasn’t satisfied the high hurdle necessary to get the RBA to do anything about it."
Key Quotes
"Domestic indicators continue to point to jobless growth and no certainty that declining mining investment will be replaced quickly. Retail looks softer and the property (price) market seems near a plateau. Extent of fiscal consolidation remains uncertain and the unsettled state of consumers, post the Budget, could be a slow negative burn on demand and ultimately business outcomes."
"Forward indicators from survey still weak. Australian forecasts unchanged: 3.3% in 2014/15, 3.0% in 2015/16. But jobless growth still sees unemployment rate peak at 6¼% by end-2014. Cash rate unchanged until late 2015. On rates our judgement is that the risk of a further easing has risen but so far hasn’t satisfied the high hurdle necessary to get the RBA to do anything about it."