AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears setting their sights as price steps into their lair

• AUD/USD has reached into a supply zone and unless it can break the near term structure, the focus is on the downside.
• From a top-down analysis, the various structures are identified.

Ahead of Chinese data to start the week, AUD/USD has reached higher within a supply zone but unless it can break out to the upside, the focus is on the downside. 

• When are China’s official PMI data and how could they affect AUD/USD?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see a number of key features which include a rising trend line target, a slight confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as well as prior highs which make up the target area:

From a top-down analysis, the supply zone is shown on the monthly chart as follows:

On a daily analysis, there are two possible scenarios identified as follows:

Scenario 1

Scenario 2