When is the Aussie Trade Balance, and how could it affect the AUD/USD?

Aussie Trade Balance overview

Early Thursday at 01:30 GMT sees another iteration of Australia's local Trade Balance, and markets are keeping their expectations to a minimum, with August's Trade Balance figure forecast to contract from 1.551 billion to 1.4 billion. Aussie Imports came in at 0% last month, while Exports shrank by -1%, and market participants are bracing for more of the same this go around, with Australia's domestic economy and headline trade figures excessively exposed to any kind of slowdown from China, a rising risk as the US-Sino trade war continues to unfold.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

With expectations already set low, a surprise buildup in either of Australia's Import or Export category will  be a welcome shift, though a continued contraction in the reported figures will see the Aussie resume its current bearish course, thanks to increased USD buying elsewhere in the market as noted by FXStreet's Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik: "the pair accelerated its decline after breaking below the 61.8% retracement of its September rally at around 0.7170 and seems poised to retest the yearly low at 0.7084, as the bearish momentum remains strong according to intraday technical readings. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA accelerated its slump below the larger ones, now converging with the 50% retracement of the same rally at 0.7200, while technical indicators head south at oversold territory. Below the mentioned 0.7084, the pair has little in its way to 0.6826, the multi-year low set in early 2016."

Support levels: 0.7085 0.7050 0.7010

Resistance levels: 0.7170 0.7200 0.7225    

Key notes

Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance

AUD/USD analysis: heading toward the yearly low

Aussie Dollar at two-year lows after Strong US data

About the Aussie Trade Balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.