24 Jan 2014
Flash: Seasonals favour USD/JPY in Q1 2014 - TDS
FXstreet.com (Bali) - There is still plenty of fundamental support for a higher USD versus the JPY in the coming months, notes Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
"From a seasonal perspective, the early part of the calendar year tends to be very USD-positive in terms of price action. The 2013 ramp up in the USD in the early part of last year has undoubtedly embellished this trend to a degree but the trend remains evidently USD-positive through the early part of the calendar year even when discounting that episode."
"There has only been once occasion in the past 10 years (2008) where the first quarter of the calendar year marked a significant loss for USDJPY. All other years have seen the first quarter end broadly flat or higher relative to the start of January. Our Studies show average USDJPY gains of just over 3% in Q1 since 1999 (a little under 2.8% excluding last year)."
"We think minor dips (below 103) in USDJPY are a buy; position long at 102.85, risking 101.85 and target 107."
Key Quotes
"From a seasonal perspective, the early part of the calendar year tends to be very USD-positive in terms of price action. The 2013 ramp up in the USD in the early part of last year has undoubtedly embellished this trend to a degree but the trend remains evidently USD-positive through the early part of the calendar year even when discounting that episode."
"There has only been once occasion in the past 10 years (2008) where the first quarter of the calendar year marked a significant loss for USDJPY. All other years have seen the first quarter end broadly flat or higher relative to the start of January. Our Studies show average USDJPY gains of just over 3% in Q1 since 1999 (a little under 2.8% excluding last year)."
"We think minor dips (below 103) in USDJPY are a buy; position long at 102.85, risking 101.85 and target 107."