US: ISM manufacturing and jobless claims in focus - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the US ISM Manufacturing is expected by both TD and the wider market to soften in August after a deterioration in many of the regional Fed indices.

Key Quotes

“TD looks for a print of 52.4, above the market consensus for 52.0, though the weaker-than-expected Chicago PMI has curbed our enthusiasm somewhat. Industry-reported vehicle sales for August will trickle out throughout the day and are expected to reveal a deceleration from July levels. TD looks for total vehicle sales of 17.0m units, below the market consensus of 17.2m.

Construction spending for July is expected to rebound following a 0.6% decline the prior month; TD looks for a 0.3% m/m increase while the market expects a more robust 0.6% gain.

We are likewise far more bearish on initial jobless claims, which we expect to jump to 287k due to the displacements caused by the recent flooding in Baton Rouge; the market is looking for a comparatively tame increase from 261k to 265k.

Lastly, revisions are due for both nonfarm productivity (TD: unchanged at -0.5%; market: downward revision to -0.6%) and unit labour costs (TD: unchanged at 2.0%; market: upward revision to 2.1%) for Q2.”