15 Mar 2016
Bank of Japan to leave its monetary policy unchanged today - Nomura
Nomura's Japanese Economics Team expects the Bank of Japan to leave its monetary policy unchanged today, as it aims to first monitor the impact of its negative interest rate policy.
Key Quotes
BOJ policy board meeting (Monday/Tuesday): We expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its Policy Board meeting, so that it can monitor the impact of its negative interest rate policy.
There has been a decline in the yield curve following the introduction of the negative interest rate policy, but there has been hardly any impact on prices and the real economy.
If anything, attention has been focused on the unfavourable impact of negative interest rates, such as the deterioration in earnings at financial institutions. Interest rate cuts in rapid succession may increase these concerns.
Looking at the external environment, financial markets have calmed down compared with the major turmoil in February.
In addition, major indicators in the US including the ISM indices and employment statistics also indicate the US economy is not stalling, providing some bright signs. In this monetary policy meeting, we expect the BOJ to take a wait-and-see approach rather than rushing to carry out additional easing.
Key Quotes
BOJ policy board meeting (Monday/Tuesday): We expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to leave its monetary policy unchanged at its Policy Board meeting, so that it can monitor the impact of its negative interest rate policy.
There has been a decline in the yield curve following the introduction of the negative interest rate policy, but there has been hardly any impact on prices and the real economy.
If anything, attention has been focused on the unfavourable impact of negative interest rates, such as the deterioration in earnings at financial institutions. Interest rate cuts in rapid succession may increase these concerns.
Looking at the external environment, financial markets have calmed down compared with the major turmoil in February.
In addition, major indicators in the US including the ISM indices and employment statistics also indicate the US economy is not stalling, providing some bright signs. In this monetary policy meeting, we expect the BOJ to take a wait-and-see approach rather than rushing to carry out additional easing.