31 Dec 2015
Commodities: Supply adjustment is well underway for oil, not so for the metals – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) - Research Team at Deutsche Bank, expects OPEC will have engineered one of the sharpest historical declines in US production by next year.
Key Quotes
“While we expect that the first half of 2016 will remain oversupplied and risks remain to the downside during this period, the steady contraction of US supply along with trend rates of demand growth should lead to a more normalised market balance in 2017. However, the current recovery period for oil will likely be one of the slowest and most extended on record.”
“We remain bearish on the outlook for gold as the Fed enters a tightening cycle and the US dollar appreciates further. Several factors contribute to a difficult outlook for industrial metals: the barriers to exit for many industrial metals are high, the industry still has not adjusted to structurally lower Chinese demand growth, and long gestation projects continue to add supply to the market. While supply cuts should gather momentum in 2016, we expect price stabilisation only in 2017 when markets should start to look more balanced.”
Key Quotes
“While we expect that the first half of 2016 will remain oversupplied and risks remain to the downside during this period, the steady contraction of US supply along with trend rates of demand growth should lead to a more normalised market balance in 2017. However, the current recovery period for oil will likely be one of the slowest and most extended on record.”
“We remain bearish on the outlook for gold as the Fed enters a tightening cycle and the US dollar appreciates further. Several factors contribute to a difficult outlook for industrial metals: the barriers to exit for many industrial metals are high, the industry still has not adjusted to structurally lower Chinese demand growth, and long gestation projects continue to add supply to the market. While supply cuts should gather momentum in 2016, we expect price stabilisation only in 2017 when markets should start to look more balanced.”