20 Jul 2015
EUR/USD forecast: waiting for Greece – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is consolidating in the low-1.0800s on Monday amidst some respite from Greek headlines and empty dockets in Euroland and the US.
“Expect Greek-related headlines to persist with a bailout accord now expected to be concluded in the next three weeks (hopefully) ahead of expected elections likely in September or October. With the blackout period before the FOMC next week, markets will be left to their own devices with respect to Fed expectations this week. Elsewhere, on the CFTC front, net leveraged EUR shorts increased in the latest week and at this juncture, risks for the pair may remain oriented towards 1.0750 before 1.0660”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has sold off to the May low at 1.0819, directly below here lies the 1.0776 uptrend. We note the 13 counts on the intraday charts and this does suggest that we are likely to see a small rebound ahead of further losses. We are negative, the market has broken down from cloud support and the lagging line is below the cloud”.
“Expect Greek-related headlines to persist with a bailout accord now expected to be concluded in the next three weeks (hopefully) ahead of expected elections likely in September or October. With the blackout period before the FOMC next week, markets will be left to their own devices with respect to Fed expectations this week. Elsewhere, on the CFTC front, net leveraged EUR shorts increased in the latest week and at this juncture, risks for the pair may remain oriented towards 1.0750 before 1.0660”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued the pair “has sold off to the May low at 1.0819, directly below here lies the 1.0776 uptrend. We note the 13 counts on the intraday charts and this does suggest that we are likely to see a small rebound ahead of further losses. We are negative, the market has broken down from cloud support and the lagging line is below the cloud”.