6 Jul 2015
EUR/CHF: Dumped after Greek referendum
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/CHF is offered on Greece NO vote, currently trading at 1.0357 with a high of 1.0389 and a low of 1.0351.
EUR/CHF, as the safe haven that it is, has been one of pairs that has been smashed to the downside on the majority of a NO vote.
EUR/CHF price action
EUR/CHF gapped down at the start of the month when the Greeks called for a referendum, this was from 1.0410 down to 1.0312 where the cross found traction and demand took it up to 1.0524, being the highest level pre referendum level. There was a drift to the downside in the final sessions towards the week's close to 1.0422 and we have opened the week with 1.0353 lows and stuck at a steady spot rate here for the time being ahead of full desks opening the week.
EUR/CHF fundamentals on Greek referendum NO vote
The Greek "No" campaign, lead by Greece's governing Syriza party campaigned, saying the bailout terms were humiliating have trumped the "Yes" voters while the projected turnout in Sunday's referendum was about 60%. Figures published by the interior ministry showed 61% of those whose ballots had been counted voting "No", against 39% voting "Yes". What does this all mean? Athens can now come back to the negotiating table saying that they put the Eurozones demands to a democratic test and that they were rejected by the people, which may give Greece a stronger case for preferable terms on a new deal, or, this could eventually be the foundations for a Grexit. An ECB source run on Twitter has been reported to say that The ECB will maintain current ELA level. The CHF is likely to attract flow on this outcome, but that is until the SNB may decide to verbally or physically prop up the Euro again, but in this case, they may not be able to beat the market this time around should this turn in to a full and outright Grexit.
What next post the Greek referendum?
Greek Tsipras states that Greece with commence negotiations again with its creditors tomorrow in hope to restore the banking system for Tuesday. Meanwhile, EU leaders, Merkel and Hollande, are calling for a summit on July 7th in Europe and recently, Tusk, President of the European Council has confirmed this. Reacting to the result, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis called it "a big yes to a democratic Europe".
EUR/CHF technically
EUR/CHF, on the longer term charts is range bound and remaining with its consolidation of the start of the year supply over the Russian and oil crisis from 1.2000, and now having been rejected at the 1.05 highs and trading back in between there and 1.0350/00 that acting as psychological support for the time being, we remain a sideways channel on the minor recovery from 0.9665 January and 2015 lows. A break of 1.0220 when full markets get going could be last stop before revisiting 2015 lows through the parity level. 1.0800 offers a target for the bulls should the sideways channel break to the upside on a convincing close above 1.0650.
EUR/CHF, as the safe haven that it is, has been one of pairs that has been smashed to the downside on the majority of a NO vote.
EUR/CHF price action
EUR/CHF gapped down at the start of the month when the Greeks called for a referendum, this was from 1.0410 down to 1.0312 where the cross found traction and demand took it up to 1.0524, being the highest level pre referendum level. There was a drift to the downside in the final sessions towards the week's close to 1.0422 and we have opened the week with 1.0353 lows and stuck at a steady spot rate here for the time being ahead of full desks opening the week.
EUR/CHF fundamentals on Greek referendum NO vote
The Greek "No" campaign, lead by Greece's governing Syriza party campaigned, saying the bailout terms were humiliating have trumped the "Yes" voters while the projected turnout in Sunday's referendum was about 60%. Figures published by the interior ministry showed 61% of those whose ballots had been counted voting "No", against 39% voting "Yes". What does this all mean? Athens can now come back to the negotiating table saying that they put the Eurozones demands to a democratic test and that they were rejected by the people, which may give Greece a stronger case for preferable terms on a new deal, or, this could eventually be the foundations for a Grexit. An ECB source run on Twitter has been reported to say that The ECB will maintain current ELA level. The CHF is likely to attract flow on this outcome, but that is until the SNB may decide to verbally or physically prop up the Euro again, but in this case, they may not be able to beat the market this time around should this turn in to a full and outright Grexit.
What next post the Greek referendum?
Greek Tsipras states that Greece with commence negotiations again with its creditors tomorrow in hope to restore the banking system for Tuesday. Meanwhile, EU leaders, Merkel and Hollande, are calling for a summit on July 7th in Europe and recently, Tusk, President of the European Council has confirmed this. Reacting to the result, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis called it "a big yes to a democratic Europe".
EUR/CHF technically
EUR/CHF, on the longer term charts is range bound and remaining with its consolidation of the start of the year supply over the Russian and oil crisis from 1.2000, and now having been rejected at the 1.05 highs and trading back in between there and 1.0350/00 that acting as psychological support for the time being, we remain a sideways channel on the minor recovery from 0.9665 January and 2015 lows. A break of 1.0220 when full markets get going could be last stop before revisiting 2015 lows through the parity level. 1.0800 offers a target for the bulls should the sideways channel break to the upside on a convincing close above 1.0650.