Euro: ECB rhetoric and Warsh risk guide downside – ING

Chris Turner at ING argues the ECB is unlikely to drop its tightening rhetoric yet, even if a second September hike might be a mistake. He notes the ECB wants to talk tough to manage inflation dynamics, keeping one hike priced by early next year, and warns EUR/USD could revisit the 1.1325 lows on Kevin Warsh’s comments.

ECB stance keeps Euro under pressure

"As our team have been discussing this week, we think it is too early for the ECB to abandon its tightening rhetoric – even though a second hike in September could be a policy mistake."

"The ECB script remains that last month's rate hike was not an insurance move, and it sounds like the ECB wants to talk tough to ride out this inflation hump and ensure that second-round effects do not emerge."

"That suggests market pricing of one ECB rate hike by early next year can stay in money market curves."

"EUR/USD could make a break back to the 1.1325 lows on Warsh today."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)