Türkiye: A 350 bps rate hike will immediately trigger pressure on the Lira – Commerzbank

The development of note, leading up to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) rate decision, was a sharp devaluation of the Lira earlier this week. Economists at Commerzbank analyze TRY's outlook.

A 500 bps rate hike will fall within expectations

A 500 bps rate hike will fall within expectations, but it will be large enough to let the debate progress to factors such as the consequence of rate hikes, whether or not conventional monetary policy will be successful, and until when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold patience with this process. 

Whereas a smaller 350 bps hike will immediately trigger usual short-term concerns and pressure on the Lira: CBRT has only limited degrees of freedom, rate hikes are already finished, and so on.