ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: Eurozone HCIP inflation seen at 5.9% in 2023

The European Central Bank (ECB) conducted a survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2023, with the key findings noted below.

“Eurozone's HICP inflation seen at 5.9% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025 and longer-term.”

"According to respondents, these changes mainly reflect a combination of recent data outturns, ongoing stronger and broader than expected indirect effects of energy price developments as well as higher forecast wage growth.”

“Expect inflation to fall to 2.1% in 2025, which was not part of the survey in October, and stabilize there in the long term.”

“Real GDP growth expectations largely unchanged.”

“Unemployment rate expectations revised down.”

Market reaction

The above survey findings seem to have some positive impact on the Euro, as EUR/USD is extending its renewed upside above 1.0900. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0912, modestly flat on the day.